Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 6.580589e-05 0.000079 0.000092 0.000108 0.000126 0.000145 0.000167
2025-03-30 4.892196e-05 0.000065 0.000084 0.000108 0.000135 0.000166 0.000204
2025-04-06 3.851869e-05 0.000056 0.000077 0.000104 0.000138 0.000178 0.000227
2025-04-13 3.216723e-05 0.000050 0.000074 0.000106 0.000146 0.000194 0.000256
2025-04-20 2.532617e-05 0.000043 0.000067 0.000101 0.000145 0.000200 0.000271
2025-04-27 2.119850e-05 0.000039 0.000064 0.000101 0.000150 0.000212 0.000294
2025-05-04 1.792827e-05 0.000036 0.000062 0.000100 0.000154 0.000223 0.000316
2025-05-11 1.599276e-05 0.000034 0.000061 0.000103 0.000162 0.000239 0.000344
2025-05-18 1.396085e-05 0.000032 0.000060 0.000104 0.000168 0.000252 0.000369
2025-05-25 1.119748e-05 0.000028 0.000055 0.000100 0.000166 0.000256 0.000381
2025-06-01 9.156057e-06 0.000025 0.000052 0.000098 0.000167 0.000262 0.000396
2025-06-08 7.674150e-06 0.000023 0.000050 0.000097 0.000169 0.000270 0.000414
2025-06-15 6.436810e-06 0.000021 0.000049 0.000098 0.000175 0.000283 0.000441
2025-06-22 5.160704e-06 0.000019 0.000046 0.000097 0.000177 0.000294 0.000464
2025-06-29 3.951240e-06 0.000016 0.000043 0.000094 0.000178 0.000300 0.000481
2025-07-06 3.295068e-06 0.000015 0.000042 0.000095 0.000183 0.000314 0.000510
2025-07-13 2.346309e-06 0.000013 0.000039 0.000091 0.000180 0.000315 0.000520
2025-07-20 1.843914e-06 0.000012 0.000037 0.000090 0.000183 0.000325 0.000543
2025-07-27 1.445444e-06 0.000011 0.000036 0.000090 0.000187 0.000336 0.000566
2025-08-03 1.245288e-06 0.000010 0.000036 0.000092 0.000195 0.000353 0.000600
2025-08-10 1.011122e-06 0.000010 0.000035 0.000093 0.000200 0.000367 0.000629
2025-08-17 6.721969e-07 0.000008 0.000033 0.000090 0.000198 0.000369 0.000640
2025-08-24 4.536564e-07 0.000007 0.000031 0.000088 0.000197 0.000374 0.000655